Figure 1. Two separate SSMs were set up, one for females and the other for males. The models were applied to all encounter histories of females and males, including those with zero and multiple spouse-changes. For clarity, the model diagram is divided in two panels. In (a), we represent the transitions of the ‘old’ states and the first year ‘new’ states. In (b), we depict the transitions of the ‘new’ states, which revert to ‘old’ after the third breeding attempt (see below and §2d in the main text). The states are: successful (SOld) or failed (FOld) birds breeding with the old mate; successful (SThis new) or failed (FThe fresh new) individuals breeding with a new mate, where a relationship is defined as ‘new’ for the first 3 years (S/Fnew1, S/Fnew2, S/Fnew3), after which the individuals automatically transition to the ‘old’ states; non-breeding (NonB), if they skipped breeding and their partner was alive; widowed (Wid), if their previous mate died and they did not breed with a new one. In both panels, the same names are used for the same states-i.e. NonB in (b) is the same state as in (a). The different colours are used to represent successful and failed breeders (both with an old and a new mate), non breeders and https://datingranking.net/biker-dating/ widowed. The transition probabilities between states (?), shown in the equation boxes at the bottom of (a), are driven by state-specific parameters. The complete set of state-specific parameters, determining the transitions between states, were: probability of retaining the previous mate (breed); probability of breeding after mate-change (breedSwitch); breeding success with the first mate (succDated) or with subsequent mates (succThe brand new); individual survival (fa); partner survival (fmate). In the equation boxes, the breed parameters for the different states are represented using bold underlined text to highlight that, within the model formulation, the environmental effects on the state-specific breed parameters were quantified using logistic regression. (Online version in colour.)
Remain
Contained in this the female and male SSM preparations, to investigate the environmental people away from divorce, i utilized univariate logistic regression to research the results out of SSTA and you may Cinch into likelihood of preserving the earlier spouse (breed). The significance of the covariates try reviewed having fun with introduction opportunities variables w (digital additional topic).
As described above, this SSM was used to analyse the encounter histories of all individuals in our colonies, also including those that never changed mate. This was advantageous for the retrieval of unbiased ‘breed’ and ‘breedSwitch‘ parameters. However, the breeding success parameters estimated in this model were not conditional on mate-change having occurred. Moreover, owing to model convergence issues, it was not possible to specify different breeding success parameters for birds that changed mate owing to divorce and owing to widowing. Therefore, separately for females and males, we designed a second SSM (electronic supplementary material) to quantify the breeding success before and after mate-change, using different parameters for birds that changed mate owing to divorce and widowing. To ensure that the estimated breeding success rates were conditional on mate-change having occurred and in order to simplify the model formulation and reach model convergence, we retained in the analysis only those individuals that changed mate once owing to widowing or divorce.
(e) County area design execution
The brand new SSM investigation is did regarding JAGS app conducted thanks to R through the R2JAGS plan . The new ple from the rear shipments each and every SSM parameter. For everybody designs, i produced three stores with a minimum of 29 one hundred thousand iterations. We ensured that the chains was basically well-mixed hence the latest Gelman–Rubin diagnostic overlap statistic try below step one.02 for all variables.
